quarta-feira, janeiro 28, 2009

Futuro do "euro" - esboçam-se cenários

No dia 26, o tema da desagregação da UEM foi abordado nas páginas do Financial Times:

Gideon Rachman, "When Europe starts to melt at the edges", FT, January 26 2009

Motivo: alguns entusiastas da UEM, têm vindo a analisar vários cenários, entre os quais, a desagregação:

A number of scenarios are possible.

The most straightforward – accelerated political integration within the eurozone and a move to some form of fiscal federalism – is the least likely.

Another would be a bail-out of the affected member-states by the rest of the eurozone. This is unlikely, but not totally inconceivable, especially if a bail-out were accompanied by IMF-style conditionality. An insolvent member-state could also default on its debt, but remain in the eurozone, or go for the ‘nuclear option’, which would be to default and leave the eurozone.

However, the most likely outcome is that the hardest-hit countries will be forced into wrenching fiscal adjustment and that Germany and others with large external surpluses will take modest steps to rebalance their economies. Eurozone economic growth will be weak, and some member-states will experience prolonged stagnation.

Governments will struggle to manage the political strains caused by fiscal austerity at a time of anaemic economic growth, and political tensions between the member-states will rise.

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